A Wild Coast project-commissioned survey has shown that tourism would have a much more positive long-term effect than mining in the Xolobeni area of Transkei.

The Grant Thornton survey was presented to the Wilderness Foundation at the end of last month.

Thornton's brief was to conduct a financial and socio-economic assessment for a period of 22 years, from 2006 to 2028, in order for it to be compared with the lifetime of the proposed mining operation.

The assessment was done in terms of national plans to develop a "bioregional planning framework for the large-scale implementation of a conservation and sustainable development programme across the Wild Coast between the Mtamvuma and Kei rivers".

The project initiation phase ended at the beginning of May and the start of the implementation phase was set for August 31.

Environment and Tourism MEC Andre de Wet said this was the target date but it might be delayed as a project of this magnitude needed "a thorough consultation process" and mechanisms for this are now in place. The consultation would include discussing both the tourism and mining options for Xolobeni.

The Wild Coast Project analysis carries three scenarios - a base case, a low-road or pessimistic scenario and an optimistic one. The differences between the projects are not substantial across the various areas investigated or in terms of the 22-year projection.

The base case scenario shows that this could generate R28 million in the first year of operation rising to R50m in the second year, with high levels of unskilled and semi-skilled employment in this phase.

This would arise from projects proposed by an earlier joint European Union and Department of Environment Affairs and Tourism study.

The proposed projects are all along the coast in the Mbizana municipal area, from the northern point of the Mkambathi nature reserve to Mtamvuma just south of Port Edward on the Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal border. De Wet said that many of the developers were "very keen to get them started".

He added that the Development Bank of South Africa had established a special unit to look at projects along the Wild Coast and that R500m had been put aside for development.

"The Industrial Development Corporation is also keen to get involved and has asked for well considered and thought out proposals to be brought to it."

The capital cost of all the projects in the six areas identified in the assessment is estimated at R288m, with more than two-thirds of this in the Mzamba area (R193m), followed by R31,6m for each project at Mnyameni and Sikombe, R16,6m at Mphlana right down to R3,1m at Mtentu. The cost includes infrastructure such as water, roads, electricity and sanitation.

The proposed tourism projects range from fully-fledged developed operations that would include the Wild Coast Sun hotel to remote wilderness camps.

They include a 60-bed three-star hotel and 50 residential units at Mzamba, 20 timber-framed chalets at Mphalana with a similar operation at Mnyameni, a tented camp added to existing facilities at Kwanyana, 20 timber chalets at Sikombe, a tented adventure camp at Mtentu and an upgrade of the existing facilities there by Wilderness Safaris.
The projected income from each project would be about R28m.

This assumes an occupancy rate of less than 60 percent.

The gross operating profit from the projects is estimated at R6,4m in the first year, rising to R12,4m at the end of the projected 22-year timeframe.

Income from related activities like hiking, abseiling or river rafting has not been included.

The initial phases would provide more than 4000 jobs across the area, dropping to about 450 once the projects got off the ground. "The proposed tourism investments will have significant financial, economic and socio-economic impact benefits for the area that will remain long after the 22-year lifespan of the mining operation," the assessment concludes.